{"id":3056,"date":"2024-07-15T16:11:10","date_gmt":"2024-07-15T07:11:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fx-vhouse.com\/?p=3056"},"modified":"2024-07-19T20:38:58","modified_gmt":"2024-07-19T11:38:58","slug":"%e5%88%9d%e5%bf%83%e8%80%85%e3%81%8a%e3%81%99%e3%81%99%e3%82%81%ef%bc%9a%e7%a7%bb%e5%8b%95%e5%b9%b3%e5%9d%87%e7%b7%9a%ef%bc%91%e6%9c%ac%ef%bc%88%e8%a8%ad%e5%ae%9a%e5%80%a420%ef%bc%89%e3%81%ae%e3%82%b7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fx-vhouse.com\/en\/3056.html","title":{"rendered":"Recommended for Beginners: Establishing a Simple Trend-Following Method Using a Single Moving Average (Set to 20)"},"content":{"rendered":"

This article is a trading strategy guide after a long break.<\/p>\n

Today, I’m introducing an ultra-simple method using the moving average (MA), which is likely the most commonly used tool in chart analysis for stocks, forex, and other markets. (,,>\u1391<,,)<\/p>\n

Since this strategy uses only one moving average, it is easily replicable for beginners. I hope you find it helpful.<\/p>\n

Why Establish a Trading Method Using the Moving Average Now<\/h2>\n

Do you have a trading method that uses moving averages?<\/p>\n

In the past, I have analyzed and tested strategies using moving averages and written articles about them. However, in recent years, I mainly relied on the Wolfe Wave and RSI combination method, which has been sufficiently profitable.<\/p>\n

The Wolfe Wave method has a win rate of about 70%, and the RSI alone also wins around 60-70% of the time.<\/p>\n

When conditions for both methods are met, the win rate naturally increases, often exceeding 80%.<\/p>\n

\"\u6700\u5f37\u306e\u30a6\u30a9\u30eb\u30d5\u6ce2\u52d5\u3068\u306f\uff1f\u904e\u53bb\u691c\u8a3c\u304b\u3089\u5206\u304b\u3063\u305f\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30c9\u30eb\u30fc\u30eb\u3092\u516c\u958b\"<\/figure>

\u6700\u5f37\u306e\u30a6\u30a9\u30eb\u30d5\u6ce2\u52d5\u3068\u306f\uff1f\u904e\u53bb\u691c\u8a3c\u304b\u3089\u5206\u304b\u3063\u305f\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30c9\u30eb\u30fc\u30eb\u3092\u516c\u958b<\/p>2023\u5e742\u670818\u65e5<\/span><\/div><\/a><\/div>

\"RSI\u306e\u4f7f\u3044\u65b9\u3092\u5206\u6790\u3057\u305f\u3089RSI\u3060\u3051\u3067\u52dd\u3066\u308b\u7d50\u679c\u306b\u306a\u3063\u305f\u306e\u3067\u516c\u958b\"<\/figure>

RSI\u306e\u4f7f\u3044\u65b9\u3092\u5206\u6790\u3057\u305f\u3089RSI\u3060\u3051\u3067\u52dd\u3066\u308b\u7d50\u679c\u306b\u306a\u3063\u305f\u306e\u3067\u516c\u958b<\/p>2022\u5e742\u670815\u65e5<\/span><\/div><\/a><\/div>\n

However, these strategies tend to involve counter-trend trading, and with the recent super-strong yen trend, there have been fewer trading opportunities as the trend itself has rarely broken.<\/p>\n

Given the prolonged, one-directional trend, I realized that not having a robust trend-following method would result in significant missed opportunities. That’s why I decided to establish this method now. (;\uff65\u2200\uff65)<\/p>\n

Trading Methods Using Moving Averages Tend to Be Complex and Lack Replicability<\/h3>\n

I’ve always felt that while many people introduce various strategies using moving averages, they often seem overly complicated.<\/p>\n

These methods are often described as simple and straightforward, but when you look closely, they involve multiple moving averages, Bollinger Bands, or Ichimoku Cloud.<\/p>\n

Entry timing explanations such as “when the price crosses the moving average” or “when it touches a certain standard deviation of the Bollinger Band” are common. But which timeframe should you use? Do you wait for the candlestick to close or not? It often feels like these methods aren’t practical for real trading.<\/p>\n

Given the low replicability of these strategies, I decided it’s more reliable to discover and analyze my own method ( ;\ua4aa\u2313\ua4aa;).<\/p>\n

Trading Methods Using Moving Averages Tend to Be Complex and Lack Replicability<\/h2>\n

First, let’s perform an analysis based on the following rough trading rules derived from the chart to determine whether it’s worth conducting a historical backtest.<\/p>\n

Simple Trend-Following Method Using a Single Moving Average<\/span><\/div>\n
    \n
  • Moving Average (SMA) Setting: 20<\/li>\n
  • Clearly sloping either upwards or downwards<\/li>\n
  • A candlestick moves in the opposite direction of the moving average slope<\/li>\n
  • Enter when a candlestick crosses the moving average again while the slope of the moving average is maintained<\/li>\n
  • Exit if a candlestick crosses in the opposite direction of the moving average slope again<\/div><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Honestly, at this stage, the stop-loss rule is almost finalized, but the take-profit rule might still need adjustments.<\/p>\n

    Here is an example of a chart that fits the above trading rules.<\/p>\n\"\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u7dda\uff11\u672c\u30b7\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u30c8\u30ec\u30f3\u30c9\u30d5\u30a9\u30ed\u30fc\u624b\u6cd5\u30eb\u30fc\u30eb_\u8aac\u660e\"\n

    Analysis of the Chart Information<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
    Past chart analysis information<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Currency pair<\/td>\nUSDJPY<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Analysis period<\/td>\nJanuary 2015 – December 2016<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Main axis time frame<\/td>\n1 hour foot<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

    Analysis Results of the Simple Method Using a Single Moving Average<\/h3>\n

    Let’s dive right in\u2014here are the analysis results from the USD\/JPY market over the past two years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
    Analysis results of moving average simple method<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Trade rule target count<\/td>\n138 times<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Number of winning trades<\/td>\n122 times<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Number of losing trades<\/td>\n16 times<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Winning rate<\/td>\n88.4\uff05<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

    Although this is still in the analysis phase and hasn’t been traded live yet, the findings are promising.<\/p>\n

      \n
    • Total Trades:<\/strong> Over 100<\/li>\n
    • Win Rate:<\/strong> 88.4%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      This data set is substantial, and the win rate of 88.4% is impressively high (\u3000-`\u03c9-)\u2727\uff84\uff9e\uff94\uff6f<\/p>\n

      Honestly, these results are good enough to make me want to use this method for real trading.<\/p>\n

      The analysis chart is a bit cluttered, but I\u2019ve attached it for reference.<\/p>\n

        \n
      • Yellow Boxes:<\/strong> Winning trades<\/li>\n
      • Light Blue Boxes:<\/strong> Losing trades<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        The small numbers are for counting the trade occurrences, and the moving average isn’t displayed because the screenshot was taken from a 4-hour chart instead of a 1-hour chart to fit everything in. Please disregard this detail.<\/p>\n\n\t\t