![\"FX\u3066\u3099\u6700\u3082\u6709\u540d\u306a\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u7dda\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u521d\u5fc3\u8005\u3066\u3099\u3082\u77e5\u3063\u3066\u304a\u304f\u3078\u3099\u304d\u5185\u5bb9\u305f\u3099\u3051\u306b\u307e\u3068\u3081\u3066\u8aac\u660e\"](\"https:\/\/fx-vhouse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/FX\u3066\u3099\u6700\u3082\u6709\u540d\u306a\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u7dda\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u521d\u5fc3\u8005\u3066\u3099\u3082\u77e5\u3063\u3066\u304a\u304f\u3078\u3099\u304d\u5185\u5bb9\u305f\u3099\u3051\u306b\u307e\u3068\u3081\u3066\u8aac\u660e-486x290.jpg\")
<\/figure>FX\u3067\u6700\u3082\u6709\u540d\u306a\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u7dda\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u521d\u5fc3\u8005\u3067\u3082\u77e5\u3063\u3066\u304a\u304f\u3079\u304d\u5185\u5bb9\u3068\u5206\u6790\u6642\u306e\u6ce8\u610f\u70b9\u3092\u307e\u3068\u3081\u3066\u8aac\u660e<\/p>2021\u5e741\u670826\u65e5<\/span><\/div><\/a><\/div>\n Both analysis and backtesting require a clear set of rules, especially because you\u2019ll need to replicate any strategy you find in live trading.<\/p>\n Based on the rules mentioned above, there were 52 instances where the price touched the 20SMA.<\/p>\n I\u2019ve grouped some of these touches together to an extent, but even so, there were quite a few touches when using the 20SMA on the 1-hour chart.<\/p>\n When I analyzed according to the rules above, there were 22 instances where the price rebounded.<\/p>\n There were 52 touches of the 20SMA, and among those, 22 can be considered rebounds. Therefore, the rebound rate for the 20SMA on the 1-hour chart is calculated as follows:<\/p>\n Rebounds: 22 \/ Touches: 52 * 100 = 42.3%<\/strong><\/p>\n This means that roughly 2 to 3 out of every 10 touches result in a rebound.<\/p>\n This is where things get important.<\/p>\n Even with the previous rules, the rebound rate was around 40%, so theoretically, if you stick to trades with a 3:7 risk-reward ratio, you could still turn a profit!<\/p>\n However, personally, I\u2019d like to improve the win rate a bit more.<\/p>\n To do this, I\u2019ll add one more rule to the original 20SMA touch criteria.<\/p>\n As a result of this additional rule, the number of touches on the 20SMA was reduced to 30.<\/p>\n Now, let\u2019s continue analyzing the number of rebounds from the 20SMA using this updated rule.<\/p>\n To summarize the new rules:<\/p>\n There were 17 confirmed rebounds from the 20SMA.<\/p>\n Now, when considering the direction of the moving average, the rebound rate for the 20SMA is calculated as follows:<\/p>\n Rebounds: 17 \/ Touches: 30 * 100 = 56.7%<\/strong><\/p>\n Not bad at all.<\/span><\/p>\n Compared to the previous rules, the number of trades decreases slightly, but we\u2019ve narrowed it down to the point where there\u2019s a rebound roughly once every two trades out of 10.<\/p>\n So far, I\u2019ve analyzed the rebound rate for the 20-period moving average (MA) on the 1-hour chart of GBP\/JPY (British pound to Japanese yen) and narrowed down the trading rules to achieve a rebound rate of approximately 56.7%.<\/p>\n Of course, there are other ways to use moving averages, and adding more rules might further improve the win rate. However, overcomplicating the rules will reduce trading opportunities, so personally, I\u2019m fine with a win rate of around 50%.<\/p>\n From here, it\u2019s all about adjusting the risk-reward ratio and managing capital, which should help increase profitability.<\/p>\n That said, there are still no specific entry criteria or entry rules established for actually trading with this strategy.<\/p>\n The current rules are based solely on an analysis of past charts, and while this is useful, in live trading, you\u2019re unlikely to achieve the same win rate with these exact settings.<\/p>\n While Forex charts do sometimes follow familiar patterns, they don\u2019t always behave in the same way.<\/p>\n This is especially true for moving averages, which are calculated as the average of closing prices over a certain number of candles. For example, when looking at past charts, you may see that the price barely touched the moving average, but in real-time, it might not have touched at all.<\/p>\n This happens because, after a sharp price movement, the average is finalized, making it appear as if the price just touched the moving average on the historical chart.<\/p>\n In this way, analyzing only past charts doesn\u2019t provide a strategy that can be fully replicated in real-time trading, so it\u2019s essential to continue refining the method using backtesting software to establish a more robust strategy based on the 20-period moving average.<\/p>\n I\u2019ve also written a separate article covering entry rules and decision-making criteria for this trading strategy, so feel free to check that out for reference.<\/p>\n[Analysis 1] Calculating the Rebound Rate from the Moving Average Using Recent Data<\/h2>\n
Set the rules and begin analysis<\/h3>\n
\n
![\"GBPJPY\uff08\u30dd\u30f3\u30c9\u5186\uff09\u306e20\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u7dda\u306e\u53cd\u767a\u78ba\u8a8d\u753b\u50cf1-a\"](\"https:\/\/fx-vhouse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/GBPJPY\uff08\u30dd\u30f3\u30c9\u5186\uff09\u306e20\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u7dda\u306e\u53cd\u767a\u78ba\u8a8d\u753b\u50cf1-a-1-1024x259.jpg\")
<\/a>\nSet rules to determine what counts as a rebound and analyze<\/h3>\n
\n
![\"GBPJPY\uff08\u30dd\u30f3\u30c9\u5186\uff09\u306e20\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u7dda\u306e\u53cd\u767a\u78ba\u8a8d\u753b\u50cf2-a\"](\"https:\/\/fx-vhouse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/GBPJPY\uff08\u30dd\u30f3\u30c9\u5186\uff09\u306e20\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u7dda\u306e\u53cd\u767a\u78ba\u8a8d\u753b\u50cf2-a-1024x259.jpg\")
<\/a>\n[Analysis 2] Focusing on High-Win-Rate Strategies to Increase Profitability<\/h2>\n
\n
![\"GBPJPY\uff08\u30dd\u30f3\u30c9\u5186\uff09\u306e20\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u7dda\u306e\u53cd\u767a\u78ba\u8a8d\u753b\u50cf3-a\"](\"https:\/\/fx-vhouse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/GBPJPY\uff08\u30dd\u30f3\u30c9\u5186\uff09\u306e20\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u7dda\u306e\u53cd\u767a\u78ba\u8a8d\u753b\u50cf3-a-1024x259.jpg\")
<\/a>\n\n
![\"GBPJPY\uff08\u30dd\u30f3\u30c9\u5186\uff09\u306e20\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u7dda\u306e\u53cd\u767a\u78ba\u8a8d\u753b\u50cf4-a\"](\"https:\/\/fx-vhouse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/GBPJPY\uff08\u30dd\u30f3\u30c9\u5186\uff09\u306e20\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u7dda\u306e\u53cd\u767a\u78ba\u8a8d\u753b\u50cf4-a-1024x259.jpg\")
<\/a>\nSummary of the Analysis of the Rebound Rate for the 20-Period Moving Average on the 1-Hour Chart<\/h2>\n
![\"\u904e\u53bb\u691c\u8a3c\u3066\u3099\u3082\u52dd\u738761\uff05\u306e\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u7dda\u53cd\u767a\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30c8\u3099\u624b\u6cd5\u307e\u3068\u3081\"](\"https:\/\/fx-vhouse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/\u904e\u53bb\u691c\u8a3c\u3066\u3099\u3082\u52dd\u738761\uff05\u306e\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u7dda\u53cd\u767a\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30c8\u3099\u624b\u6cd5\u307e\u3068\u3081-486x290.jpg\")
<\/figure>![\"FX\u3066\u3099\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u7dda\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u305f\u52dd\u738756.7%\u306e\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30c8\u3099\u624b\u6cd5\u306e\u30a8\u30f3\u30c8\u30ea\u30fc\u30eb\u30fc\u30eb\u3092\u5206\u6790\"](\"https:\/\/fx-vhouse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/FX\u3066\u3099\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u7dda\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u305f\u52dd\u738756.7\u306e\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30c8\u3099\u624b\u6cd5\u306e\u30a8\u30f3\u30c8\u30ea\u30fc\u30eb\u30fc\u30eb\u3092\u5206\u6790-486x290.jpg\")
<\/figure>